Postcard Pete: Three Picks Is Not a Pattern

Pete takes the other side of Chip's Nix call. The interception rate says Thursday is a closer call than Chip wants it to be.

What I'm arguing: Chip's call that Bo Nix throws an interception Thursday leans on the wrong number. I'm not making a counter-call. I'm saying his evidence is thinner than his confidence.

Chip's case rests on two facts, and both are real. Seattle leads the league with eleven takeaways and is tied for the most interceptions with seven. Nix is completing 59.9 percent of his passes.

Here's the problem. Completion percentage tells you how often the ball isn't caught by a Bronco. It doesn't tell you how often it's caught by somebody else. For that you need the number Chip mentions once and then hurries past: three interceptions in 162 attempts. That's about one every 54 throws.

Do the plain math. If Denver throws something like 30 to 35 times Thursday, Nix's own season rate puts him at well under one expected interception. Seattle's defense pushes that up, and I'll grant Chip that much. But "pushes it up" is a lean, and Chip wrote this like a certainty.

The Week 1 interception at Kansas City is the other piece, and Chip admits it's one play. One play from September is a postcard, not a forecast. Nice to look at, and it tells you nothing about the weather now.

Now Chip's favorite number, read the slow way. Seattle's seven interceptions came in four games, and three of them came from one quarterback in one fourth quarter: Drake Maye, Week 1. Take that quarter out and it's four picks in four games since, with none against Washington. Yes, four of the seven were deep balls, and Nix's Week 1 pick was a deep ball. That tells me what to watch for. It doesn't tell me how often Denver will throw deep.

Credit where it's earned: Chip named his terms before kickoff. I think it's closer than he does.

My bottom line: a defensible call, priced too confidently. Three picks in 162 attempts is the warning.

Stats as of Oct 14, 2026.

Postcard Pete files after the facts land. Never instead of them.

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